Trump might also enjoy a relative advantage in the Electoral College because of the counter-majoritarian aspects of the U.S. A certain segment of the public will buy into these messages. Trump intends to use his various criminal and civil trials as proof that “they”-the Biden administration-are going after him because he represents “us”-his voters. That will make his attacks on the “deep state” and his own persecution narrative more convincing. Trump will be able to run as both an incumbent, because he’s a former president, and an “outsider,” as in 2016, because he is out of office. Trump’s media supporters, above all at Fox News, will offer support, propagating a set of myths about his record in office, particularly the supposedly great economy over which he presided. Large numbers of Americans will vote for anyone running as a Republican against a Democrat.

In all likelihood, the leaders in his party will unite behind him. Once he is presumably crowned the Republican nominee, which seems inevitable and will probably occur by Super Tuesday, the GOP’s electoral and fundraising machine will whir into motion on his behalf. About a third of Republicans are fiercely loyal to him, meaning that he has the unwavering support of a small but potent segment of the broader electorate. The former president enjoys some clear advantages. Thankfully, that is not a hard case to make. To the contrary, Democrats, and any other sensible voters who oppose Trump, need to forcefully remind the American people about how disastrous he was as president and inform them of how much worse a second term would be. I’m not arguing that anyone who wants President Biden to win-and, more important, anyone who wants Trump to lose-should relax. It’s hard to imagine any other Republican candidate galvanizing Democrats, independents, and even some Republicans to vote for the current president in the way that Trump will. But if Biden’s health holds, he is very likely to be reelected next year. And yes, much could change over the next 11 months, potentially in Trump’s favor.

I see reasons to think he almost certainly won’t. Some look at Trump’s long list of flaws and understandably see reasons to worry about him winning. But amid all of the worrying, we might be losing sight of the most important fact: Trump’s chances of winning are slim.

This alarm-raising is justified and appropriate, given the looming danger of authoritarianism in American politics. Over the past few weeks, warnings about the threat posed by Donald Trump’s potential reelection have grown louder, including in a series of articles in The Atlantic.

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